“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” — Winston Churchill (probably talking about mortgage rates)
Solid Showing in Spite of Data and Uncertainty
If the bond market were a reality show, today’s episode would be called “The Least Dramatic Week Ever.”
Q4 GDP and jobless claims data came in today, but markets barely reacted. The mortgage rate rollercoaster? More of a gentle kiddie ride lately.
Lowest Rates in Over a Month… But Don’t Get Too Excited
Mortgage rates have hit their lowest levels since December 20th, but the difference is so small most borrowers won’t even notice.
It’s like finding an extra nickel in your pocket—not useless, but also not life-changing.
Today's Economic Calendar (Friday, January 31st)
The PCE Price Index is one of the Fed’s favorite inflation indicators, so any surprises could shake things up.
Higher-than-expected inflation? Expect rates to rise. A cooler reading? Mortgage rates could get a little relief.
- 8:30 am: Core PCE Inflation (y/y): Expected 2.8%, Previous 2.8%
- 8:30 am: Employment Costs Q4: Expected 0.9%, Previous 0.8%
- 9:45 am: Chicago PMI Jan: Expected 40, Previous 36.9
- 8:30 am: Fed Bowman Speech (Brace for market reactions)
Pending Home Sales Take a Breather
Pending home sales fell 5.5% in December after a four-month winning streak. Think of it like skipping leg day—still strong, just catching its breath.
Regional Breakdown
- Northeast: -8.1% (Boston, you good?)
- Midwest: -4.9% (Too cold to house hunt)
- South: -2.7% (People just want to golf)
- West: -10.3% (Tech bros on pause)
Trending Headlines That Impact Real Estate
Office Market Bounces Back
Remember when everyone said offices were dead? Well, they’re bouncing back. If companies continue pulling employees back in, we could see higher demand for city rentals and shifting homebuyer trends.
AI & Real Estate
With OpenAI eyeing a $340B valuation, AI is reshaping real estate—from mortgage approvals to predictive pricing. Agents and investors who leverage AI will have an edge.
TL;DR: Rates Are Stable, But Inflation Could Change That
Rates are hovering at their best levels in over a month, but the difference is minimal. The housing market is still moving, though pending sales took a pause.
Inflation data today could shake things up, and office real estate and AI are playing bigger roles in shaping the market than many realize. Stay tuned!
