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🌴 Florida Market Watch: CPI Cools, Tariffs Twist, and What It Means for Mortgage Rates in the Sunshine State ☀️🏡
If you’ve been wondering what the heck is going on with mortgage rates lately — you're not alone.
This week, we got a trifecta of market-moving headlines that could impact homebuyers, refinancers, and real estate pros across Florida.
Let’s break it down — Smart Starter style 😎
📊 CPI Cools Off — But Don’t Get Too Comfortable
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks inflation, came in at 2.6%, down from 2.8% last month.
➡️ Translation: Prices are still rising, but more slowly.
✅ Good news if you're hoping for lower mortgage rates — and who isn’t in Florida right now, with home values booming from Miami to Fort Myers?
But the market didn’t get to celebrate for long…
⚠️ Tariff Turmoil Returns
President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs, except for China, which was hit with 125% tariffs after retaliating with 84% on U.S. goods.
📉📈 Markets freaked out.
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Stocks jumped
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Mortgage bonds (MBS) dropped, then rallied back
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Rates swung like a storm front moving through the Gulf
One Florida lender reported a full 1-point swing in MBS in just hours — which can have a big effect on daily rate pricing.
🧠 Dalio Says: “Big Shift Is Coming”
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater and macro-economic philosopher (basically the Yoda of Wall Street), called the pause “a step back from a worse way.”
But warned we’re still in a once-in-a-generation shift in the global economy.
👉 He’s urging policymakers to focus on debt, trade, and imbalances before the next storm hits.
(And yes, he’s writing another book.)
🏡 What This Means for Florida Buyers & Homeowners
Let’s break it down for YOU:
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⬇️ Slower inflation = lower rate potential
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⬆️ Tariffs = inflation risk
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The Fed = watching and waiting
🤔 Should you lock your rate?
Here’s the Smart Starter take:
✅ Buying a home in Florida soon? Lock during a dip — don’t wait for perfection.
✅ Refinancing? Stay alert and ask your mortgage pro to watch MBS movement for you.
✅ Not sure? Get guidance. Florida’s market is unique — from oceanfront condos in Boca to single-family homes in Orlando.
💥 Fast Facts:
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10-Year Treasury = volatile
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MBS = ~100bps swing
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S&P 500 = up 1.2%
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Fed rate cut odds for June = 50%
🌞 Final Thoughts for Floridians
This isn’t just financial noise — it’s real stuff that impacts:
💸 Your mortgage rate
🔨 Your renovation budget
💰 Your buying power
And with so many hot markets across Florida — from Tampa to the Treasure Coast — getting the timing right could mean saving thousands.
Thinking about buying, refinancing, or just watching the market?
📲 Let’s chat. No pressure — just strategy.
Because in Florida, we prepare for all kinds of storms — and this one’s economic.
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